Primer

This report looks at the NHS Workforce Statistics from September 2009 to May 2022 to ascertain any significant trends/findings.

In order to do this, firstly, the data was graphed and summarised in a table below. Monthly and annual percentage changes are also shown. Loess smoothing (blue curve) was applied to gain insight on data trends. You may switch between job categories by clicking on the relevant tab.

Next, to predict future headcounts by category, SARIMA modelling was used to give two-year forecasts.

Note that this analysis focuses on total headcount only. As such, these numbers may not add up to the full time equivalent (FTE) data as an individual may take up more than one role.

Plots of Headcount by Selected Categories

Total

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Total 1154679 1160629 1164502 1162911 1166193 1167028 1168750 1166251 1164236 1163676 1161598 1163422 1164638 1166203 1166199 1161776 1161866 1161051 1158920 1150291 1147478 1145036 1141431 1140728 1141323 1142268 1140700 1137069 1139176 1129528 1128140 1126797 1118085 1115605 1119486 1115542 1117038 1120204 1121612 1119453 1123204 1124652 1123529 1103934 1101661 1101605 1104212 1104012 1111101 1114017 1117650 1117143 1123165 1124857 1126947 1126073 1123630 1123725 1123334 1123331 1131680 1134435 1136759 1135421 1139285 1140901 1143102 1141920 1139466 1141390 1142585 1142147 1151138 1156066 1160672 1156662 1161884 1164546 1164471 1163873 1165524 1164996 1166222 1169416 1175668 1181396 1183493 1177369 1184881 1185776 1187125 1186420 1186298 1185599 1187298 1186521 1193107 1200538 1202806 1198238 1205949 1205814 1205246 1205954 1204035 1203610 1207586 1209678 1216719 1226573 1229618 1226362 1233963 1236537 1238061 1241326 1239631 1240879 1245087 1245567 1256637 1264403 1269277 1268258 1275883 1280023 1287028 1298642 1307191 1316434 1317107 1308175 1309770 1312538 1320014 1319010 1327892 1339407 1348499 1346439 1344679 1346377 1346198 1348961 1355780 1359015 1366205 1362335 1370991 1374405 1377387 1373046 1376190 0.23% 2.34%

Midwives

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Midwives 23540 23897 24068 23929 24070 24060 24030 24089 24133 24108 24008 24057 24151 24283 24427 24295 24421 24482 24628 24605 24676 24650 24584 24524 24519 24839 24994 25015 25095 25031 25000 24955 24959 24988 24960 24851 24765 25160 25393 25272 25301 25261 25274 25175 25186 25234 25169 25002 25006 25437 25756 25632 25659 25615 25586 25611 25583 25551 25475 25413 25333 25792 26082 25953 25913 25873 25860 25711 25722 25711 25555 25407 25418 25983 26274 26053 26110 26099 25971 25882 25855 25832 25684 25510 25466 26099 26296 26063 26148 26132 26081 26060 26060 25935 25792 25583 25704 26443 26588 26356 26519 26395 26331 26299 26130 26062 26028 25813 25866 26570 26637 26475 26536 26422 26429 26368 26245 26192 26071 25978 26062 26694 26837 26656 26751 26752 26737 26664 26649 26653 26597 26562 26840 27272 27417 27201 27189 27154 27188 27031 26892 26722 26556 26354 26418 26901 27006 26781 26779 26696 26636 26364 26323 -0.16% -2.12%

Consultant

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Consultant 36932 37061 37283 37310 37485 37634 37836 37847 37866 38011 38015 38286 38507 38618 38760 38721 38870 38988 39135 39177 39242 39266 39335 39580 39758 39905 39987 40005 40204 40315 40353 40403 40427 40419 40528 40763 40997 41173 41275 41296 41419 41578 41682 41390 41359 41378 41421 41765 42125 42150 42295 42339 42527 42748 42863 42786 42886 42930 42893 43177 43602 43745 43901 43918 44125 44289 44500 44557 44570 44629 44638 44971 45349 45498 45673 45655 45860 46058 46159 46166 46236 46265 46205 46564 46955 47137 47312 47255 47507 47678 47816 47873 47955 47984 48047 48238 48607 48816 48930 48947 49134 49360 49494 49591 49548 49558 49597 49836 50275 50524 50692 50655 50837 50957 51043 51164 51200 51254 51271 51549 52053 52248 52469 52483 52701 52858 53232 53477 53546 53598 53631 53869 54218 54351 54555 54551 54764 54955 55191 55180 55243 55309 55254 55595 55946 56081 56326 56260 56479 56663 56877 56753 56926 0.30% 3.05%

Senior Managers

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Senior managers 12322 12437 12558 12636 12681 12744 12764 12363 12130 12081 11793 11571 11485 11366 11355 11255 11178 11154 11100 10845 10795 10767 10584 10476 10467 10403 10384 10360 10301 10267 10285 10193 10184 10191 10230 10230 10203 10126 10095 10071 10121 10095 10110 8545 8484 8533 8583 8600 8672 8692 8741 8834 8902 8919 8929 9005 9027 9075 9110 9158 9243 9277 9322 9349 9388 9431 9455 9502 9483 9539 9542 9635 9733 9754 9825 9850 9961 9949 9983 9954 9971 9998 9985 10114 10117 10292 10328 10376 10405 10405 10449 10513 10614 10662 10619 10755 10786 10791 10786 10796 10760 10769 10743 10634 10691 10682 10740 10775 10861 10987 11018 11087 11196 11334 11380 11335 11335 11369 11389 11351 11430 11383 11438 11518 11566 11544 11681 11663 11686 11639 11698 11735 11820 11850 11995 12042 12137 12235 12349 12260 12351 12442 12452 12529 12611 12711 12836 12865 13029 12977 12973 12959 13014 0.42% 5.37%

Managers

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Managers 26922 27115 27159 27300 27290 27289 27261 26828 26729 26615 26300 25634 25233 24707 24685 24514 24282 24070 23914 23481 23412 23302 23340 23291 23238 23206 23133 23061 23102 22883 22738 22468 22271 22274 22233 22300 22327 22338 22393 22319 22382 22393 22319 18694 18678 18740 18843 18872 19070 19041 19187 19294 19372 19431 19570 19519 19448 19576 19615 19722 19911 20199 20353 20457 20564 20661 20766 20878 20765 20897 20974 21097 21219 21321 21531 21606 21708 21479 21540 21434 21535 21675 21658 21709 21972 21936 21853 21837 21996 22084 22139 22235 22373 22345 22497 22540 22697 22894 23041 23107 23247 23316 23398 23587 23555 23677 23852 23986 24202 24426 24478 24492 24788 24769 24839 24811 24806 24878 24832 25064 25196 24273 23696 23155 23052 22970 23000 22995 22784 22725 22501 22475 22530 22537 22519 22585 22758 22766 22823 22829 22905 22924 23042 23097 23212 23380 23665 23655 23812 23976 24067 24104 24256 0.63% 5.90%

Ambulance Staff

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Ambulance staff 17666 17849 17909 17916 18078 18206 18269 18250 18181 18217 18187 18166 18169 18284 18279 18258 18339 18438 18427 18363 18349 18325 18296 18340 18393 18523 18559 18556 18546 18565 18547 18541 18443 18401 18388 18306 18379 18557 18533 18521 18541 18580 18516 18529 18466 18359 18358 18363 18419 18578 18542 18514 18496 18488 18450 18384 18300 18281 18242 18266 18374 18439 18439 18421 18463 18477 18591 18599 18487 18550 18666 18698 18862 19044 19075 19000 19060 19192 19406 19524 19629 19759 19902 20081 20195 20507 20548 20481 20840 20872 20897 20989 21080 21100 21095 21240 21455 21649 21722 21695 21755 21815 21775 21874 21900 21934 21959 22007 22245 22492 22567 22563 22669 22698 22924 16765 16775 16769 16941 17005 17241 17508 17708 17667 17789 17817 17862 17936 17980 18030 18080 18279 18475 18587 18642 18644 18677 18785 18895 18913 18879 18843 18849 18786 18948 19190 19325 19234 19281 19305 19326 19191 19143 -0.25% 1.40%

Nurses & Health Visitors

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Nurses & health visitors 315436 317736 318261 316957 317945 318408 318935 318731 318015 317657 316959 316033 316861 318606 318471 317110 317611 317511 317157 315958 315132 314436 313491 312174 313379 314257 313747 312577 313318 310075 310359 310563 307401 306599 305946 304476 305846 307953 308388 307496 308235 308599 308782 308781 308009 307841 307344 306008 308316 310652 312054 311211 312674 313289 314097 313701 313115 312427 311117 309845 312176 314606 315260 314407 315143 315606 316117 315643 314820 314553 313388 312190 314966 318516 319276 317669 318640 319175 318912 318804 318358 317428 316423 315499 318104 321085 321297 318845 319876 319678 319845 318796 317737 316725 315485 314368 317980 321393 321169 319355 320422 319965 319962 319183 318595 317884 317231 316303 320324 324513 324409 322724 323995 324596 324872 324800 324062 323954 323810 322810 326942 330725 331983 331517 332976 334282 336113 337359 337530 337604 337038 337347 340518 341879 343240 342270 344077 345759 347385 346781 346582 346802 347129 347386 350309 352826 354427 353956 356141 357426 358021 356202 356703 0.14% 2.92%

NHS Infrastructure Support

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
NHS infrastructure support 215502 216512 218304 218353 219056 218325 219112 218365 217663 217374 216112 215700 214414 213755 213463 212269 210801 209858 208945 206061 205204 204374 203466 202753 201939 201653 201375 200980 201043 199147 198852 197535 196198 195870 195779 195715 195223 194446 194843 194335 195189 195529 194750 176331 176123 176245 176625 176358 177311 177261 177843 178257 179186 179177 179419 179127 178682 179006 177644 177670 178704 178903 179202 179288 179739 180196 180839 180722 180329 180840 180863 180583 181961 181842 182723 182527 183409 182953 183069 182827 184971 184855 184842 185254 185620 186056 186224 186005 187096 187275 187617 188218 188832 189032 189267 188083 188320 189192 190328 190096 191052 191561 191619 192180 192312 192754 193607 194857 195808 197704 198711 198748 200098 200405 200478 201932 201787 201834 203121 203549 204609 205372 205831 205879 207119 207721 208544 208617 208482 209166 209555 209635 210858 211041 212061 212658 214116 215707 217275 217621 218134 219390 219536 220402 220960 220751 222374 222346 223905 224063 224876 225193 226220 0.46% 3.71%

Central Functions

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Central functions 102682 103113 104083 104065 104795 104690 105307 105348 105244 105447 104782 104996 104306 104365 104248 103698 102800 102333 101673 99613 98996 98457 97992 97695 97329 97006 96759 96774 96742 96011 95861 95156 94486 94318 94101 93870 93745 93338 93222 93099 93469 93729 93626 82087 82061 82057 82569 82367 83060 83120 83428 83550 84118 84188 84341 84054 83901 84092 84079 84035 84738 84957 85150 85230 85597 85796 86222 86191 86079 86298 86476 86605 87228 86989 87669 87569 88116 87582 87630 87467 87434 87234 87285 87567 87662 88071 88539 88507 89126 89294 89523 89108 89302 89450 89610 89316 89376 89890 90345 90245 91014 91347 91435 91512 91602 91876 92266 92536 92968 93706 94128 94091 94829 94984 95110 96184 96192 96378 97364 97447 98032 99116 99864 100420 101423 101963 102416 102278 102472 102968 103370 103496 103928 104085 104758 105046 105987 106883 107867 108149 108489 109230 109381 110028 110633 110625 111715 111723 112843 113125 113655 113326 113917 0.52% 5.00%

Core Training

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Core Training 7515 7586 7689 7644 7627 7680 7642 7478 7578 7514 7391 8311 8284 8303 8359 8400 8367 8371 8392 8380 8345 8300 8224 8732 8556 8572 8635 8554 8538 8479 8433 8508 8440 8418 8321 8931 8793 8811 8814 8824 8805 8628 8544 8553 8517 8431 8370 8997 8795 8839 8808 8822 8789 8661 8592 8547 8511 8452 8335 8949 8873 8903 8872 8924 8921 8749 8712 8769 8698 8636 8508 9067 9046 9069 9085 9073 9033 8815 8715 8644 8591 8526 8402 9367 9128 9126 9099 9061 9020 8781 8641 8558 8511 8551 8397 9871 9908 10173 10283 10320 10344 10310 10297 10359 10311 10296 10140 11315 11426 11697 11802 12016 12012 11923 11975 12070 12058 12063 11897 13049 13297 13509 13629 13725 13818 13835 13978 14006 13983 13906 13477 14870 15261 15507 15787 15895 15908 15785 15812 15812 15800 15706 15110 16888 17153 17351 17559 17821 17862 17825 17941 18008 18064 0.31% 14.33%

Foundation Doctor Year 1

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Foundation Doctor Year 1 6121 6158 6162 6185 6177 6195 6185 6182 6173 6165 7140 6209 6180 6188 6193 6195 6195 6198 6195 6185 6182 6177 7398 6244 6193 6220 6212 6216 6213 6205 6205 6217 6196 6188 10648 6190 6180 6206 6199 6226 6205 6204 6192 6207 6201 6197 8134 6505 6413 6423 6411 6390 6356 6384 6384 6400 6382 6381 8707 6302 6310 6311 6327 6349 6339 6349 6337 6343 6317 6334 8747 6464 6391 6383 6377 6372 6360 6363 6358 6374 6355 6347 8486 6254 6217 6238 6239 6223 6167 6182 6218 6229 6221 6175 8125 6216 6163 6165 6175 6177 6175 6173 6182 6181 6176 6180 8428 6424 6294 6312 6316 6303 6272 6285 6299 6291 6279 6276 7802 6501 6482 6485 6494 6451 6459 6480 6676 7825 9277 9353 9688 6435 6424 6441 6487 6484 6510 6517 6511 6475 6462 6467 8374 6673 6658 6645 6636 6560 6590 6580 6608 6595 6598 0.05% 2.10%

Foundation Doctor Year 2

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Foundation Doctor Year 2 6190 6182 6202 6248 6231 6236 6228 6263 6224 6224 6196 6512 6394 6396 6397 6447 6431 6439 6432 6413 6348 6335 6334 6610 6458 6463 6457 6472 6488 6514 6495 6508 6468 6450 6438 6609 6482 6509 6524 6576 6559 6538 6535 6557 6513 6491 6476 6660 6491 6500 6502 6522 6530 6518 6513 6508 6474 6471 6458 6768 6648 6625 6633 6673 6653 6628 6626 6608 6580 6583 6554 6857 6626 6636 6662 6700 6680 6657 6658 6655 6632 6618 6567 6748 6593 6601 6605 6627 6639 6621 6601 6610 6591 6588 6512 6787 6558 6601 6631 6604 6611 6568 6570 6608 6584 6541 6515 6766 5560 5597 5633 5551 5537 5552 5541 5670 5613 5590 5509 5752 5678 5646 5681 5721 5716 5790 5825 5974 5971 6107 6058 6171 6171 6162 6194 6296 6278 6207 6282 6245 6228 6270 6207 6345 6292 6320 6352 6346 6306 6326 6347 6386 6377 -0.14% 2.39%

HCHS Doctors

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
HCHS doctors 102172 102400 102616 102501 102324 102537 102422 101203 101642 101445 101808 104137 103865 103928 104189 103857 103937 103981 103898 103490 103216 103018 103759 105619 105207 105564 105435 105220 105355 105373 105019 104901 104402 104147 108293 106689 106150 106521 106488 106422 106385 106451 106151 105435 104942 104555 106201 107948 107639 108063 107970 107929 108069 108068 107896 107426 107075 106867 108622 109963 109944 110140 110062 110063 110038 109886 109890 109838 109508 109279 111170 111616 111127 111399 111508 111234 111158 110944 110732 110602 110236 110084 111524 113376 112875 113278 113270 112920 113111 113615 113508 113651 113528 113192 114653 116412 116040 116743 116845 116675 116783 116873 116605 116759 116423 116191 117949 119809 118510 119654 119855 119621 119387 119651 119597 119888 119530 119449 120378 122797 123614 124507 124914 124961 125118 125380 126286 127610 128776 128695 128134 128608 129972 130785 131459 131621 131825 131740 132113 132029 131831 131817 132445 134362 135341 135821 136297 136147 136248 136235 136597 136331 136393 0.05% 3.46%

Support to Ambulance Staff

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Support to ambulance staff 14159 14193 14344 14285 14380 14556 14488 14413 14423 14424 14472 14513 14563 14573 14634 14474 14527 14391 14390 14268 14216 14174 14106 14127 14043 14027 13980 13799 13770 13767 13678 13656 13666 13642 13241 13233 13249 13452 13450 13346 13631 13717 13775 13539 13501 13696 13753 13701 13898 13826 14117 13897 14144 14119 14123 14304 14282 14395 14392 14499 14687 14918 14975 14944 15234 15359 15498 15264 15701 15910 15933 15845 15969 15785 15982 15697 15885 15988 15886 15805 15732 15659 15996 16242 16465 16534 16569 16308 16442 16365 16465 16351 16360 16247 16198 16105 16152 16472 16519 16263 16621 16776 16581 16621 16491 16566 16646 16786 16837 17066 17230 17006 17354 17397 17461 24056 24151 24031 24111 23476 23723 24270 24577 24496 24649 24676 24928 25374 25600 26019 26184 26206 26446 26592 26743 26515 26822 26918 26925 27093 26924 26935 26950 27014 26923 27029 27083 26707 27157 27260 27273 27227 27316 0.33% 1.46%

Support to Doctors, Nurses & Midwives

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Support to doctors, nurses & midwives 268874 269134 269528 269237 270582 271187 271319 270983 270532 270804 270802 270501 270747 270192 269534 268176 268683 268623 267801 265402 264800 264441 262943 262145 261922 261247 260678 259246 260076 257522 256979 256640 255117 254689 255404 254694 255021 255159 255455 255200 256183 256582 256465 256374 256219 256682 257162 257178 259002 258174 257969 258187 260288 261205 262011 262289 262248 263118 263663 263159 265590 264675 265398 265278 267224 267905 268563 268733 268454 269624 269929 270165 272588 272608 273871 273087 275454 277359 277676 277470 278067 278384 278454 278650 280224 279790 280758 279350 282225 282676 283213 283096 283601 283884 284306 283578 284513 284314 284612 283463 286610 286365 286312 286827 286273 286202 286936 286464 287500 287240 288423 288200 291118 292251 293391 294289 294607 296275 297332 297100 299166 299136 300240 299936 302713 304051 306261 314750 321523 327302 327633 317840 311349 310205 312373 311942 315175 321216 324906 323707 322120 322542 321605 320689 320640 319482 320976 318966 321178 322105 322845 321819 323412 0.49% 0.40%

Support to Clinical Staff

[[1]] [[1]]
Category Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Monthly Change Annual Change
Support to clinical staff 341282 342129 343043 342664 344479 345371 345673 345405 344982 345217 345117 344888 345328 344736 344363 342824 343521 343288 342401 339153 338572 338134 336106 335143 334787 334085 333529 331636 332587 329447 328610 328424 326531 325883 326068 325166 325251 325646 326085 325738 327348 327781 327717 327433 327129 327657 328281 328053 330407 329362 330510 330631 333510 334798 336183 337051 336864 337722 338205 337684 340720 339660 340678 340635 343160 344080 345084 344863 344941 346677 346979 346991 350053 350072 351906 350634 353628 355820 356208 356256 356868 357673 358179 358538 360371 360363 361566 359590 363260 363382 364560 364304 364795 365372 365988 364900 365966 366385 367085 365571 369746 369679 369499 370078 369431 369753 370819 370225 371382 371645 373161 372460 376635 378131 379335 387170 387622 389503 390934 389421 392710 393401 395309 395114 398988 400683 403740 412922 420177 427690 428549 417614 411635 411967 415221 414682 419438 427162 431835 430795 429159 430005 429141 428245 428757 427839 430049 427589 431742 433392 434518 433196 434916 0.40% 1.34%

Summary

  • Total headcount for the NHS has increased consistently over the years with a 2.3% annual increase compared to May 2021.

  • All categories analysed except Midwives have seen their annual headcounts increase. Midwives have seen a 2.1% annual decrease compared to May 2021 and is projected to decrease further (see lowess above and SARIMA below).

  • Certain categories are cyclical/seasonal in nature, with Midwives and Year 1 Foundation Doctors strong examples of this.

  • A significant decrease in headcount occurs around 2013 which affects certain categories more significantly than others. Research indicates that approximately 7000 key staff were made redundant during this time: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/dec/31/nhs-staff-laid-off-amid-savings-drive

  • Also, very significant drops in headcount to Year 2 Foundation Doctors and Ambulance Staff occur in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

Plots of (S)ARIMA by Selected Categories

Total

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 1380166 1380772 1380553 1382527 1384297 1389023 1389008 1394261 1398787 1402027 1399157 1399184 1400421 1402023 1406042 1409710 1412406 1415791 1416338 1420073 1421589 1422879 1422616 1424913 1427310 1.47% 3.42%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
53.593 3651.25 2767.763 0.005 0.23 0.107 0.008

Midwives

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 26234 26076 25951 26109 26566 26688 26470 26465 26402 26382 26160 26080 25960 25801 25646 25769 26236 26352 26131 26127 26056 26021 25780 25715 25607 -1.04% -2.39%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
-8.267 73.261 56.012 -0.032 0.217 0.194 0.027

Consultant

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 56979 56965 57273 57639 57792 57994 57963 58170 58343 58537 58517 58618 58665 58674 58959 59324 59481 59663 59650 59851 60022 60203 60219 60284 60332 2.96% 5.88%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
6.322 64.579 45.884 0.011 0.099 0.029 0.054

Senior Managers

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 13064 13110 13160 13209 13261 13313 13360 13415 13456 13501 13545 13593 13641 13689 13737 13785 13833 13881 13928 13977 14024 14072 14119 14167 14215 4.42% 8.81%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
5.93 147.846 69.051 0.071 0.678 0.105 0.071

Managers

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 24312 24368 24425 24481 24537 24593 24649 24705 24762 24818 24874 24930 24986 25043 25099 25155 25211 25267 25323 25380 25436 25492 25548 25604 25660 2.77% 5.54%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
8.453 341.363 154.215 0.051 0.71 0.109 0.098

Ambulance Staff

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 19143 0.00% 0.00%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
9.769 508.595 116.266 0.016 0.635 0.121 -0.017

Nurses & Health Visitors

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 356943 356817 356542 359647 362457 363615 362804 364566 365540 366234 365253 365318 365317 364989 364601 367753 370510 371524 370565 372189 373114 373899 373195 373074 373008 2.35% 4.50%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
107.312 689.755 493.124 0.032 0.153 0.102 -0.037

NHS Infrastructure Support

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 226896 227573 228249 228925 229602 230278 230954 231631 232307 232983 233660 234336 235012 235689 236365 237041 237718 238394 239070 239747 240423 241099 241776 242452 243128 3.58% 7.15%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
56.568 1646.284 725.078 0.034 0.378 0.1 0.022

Central Functions

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 114359 114800 115242 115684 116125 116567 117009 117451 117892 118334 118776 119217 119659 120101 120542 120984 121426 121867 122309 122751 123192 123634 124076 124518 124959 4.63% 9.27%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
31.51 1024.262 423.433 0.039 0.462 0.098 -0.002

Core Training

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 17950 17353 19127 19407 19609 19813 20064 20104 20068 20184 20248 20300 20185 19588 21363 21644 21845 22049 22300 22340 22304 22420 22485 22536 22421 12.45% 24.91%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
8.266 106.719 70.611 0.059 0.669 0.085 0.015

Foundation Doctor Year 1

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 7242 8685 6381 6472 6532 6583 6562 6600 6604 6618 6595 6591 6911 8590 6593 6630 6653 6673 6625 6658 6655 6676 6659 6658 7143 -4.57% -1.37%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
0.497 450.03 170.315 -0.224 2.292 0.647 0.014

Foundation Doctor Year 2

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 6393 6367 6424 6402 6413 6427 6424 6408 6416 6424 6440 6437 6443 6433 6456 6447 6452 6457 6456 6449 6453 6456 6463 6461 6464 0.78% 1.11%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
1.25 111.942 46.455 0.006 0.755 0.239 -0.005

HCAS Doctors

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 136337 136836 138945 140334 140972 141468 141501 141729 141811 142589 143279 144121 144052 143844 144765 146033 146753 147368 147444 147623 147565 147955 147863 147783 147756 5.66% 8.38%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
61.878 526.556 306.097 0.05 0.262 0.108 0.022

Support to Ambulance Staff

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 27403 27489 27576 27662 27749 27835 27922 28008 28095 28182 28268 28355 28441 28528 28614 28701 28788 28874 28961 29047 29134 29220 29307 29393 29480 3.79% 7.58%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
0.092 555.443 179.003 -0.119 0.981 0.141 -0.003

Support to Doctors, Nurses & Midwives

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 325659 326032 323364 321134 320308 320931 320014 321092 322710 323498 320964 319418 318914 318708 319729 320432 320071 320286 319538 319876 319388 319040 317909 317967 318284 -2.07% -2.26%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
159.318 1468.889 1003.277 0.055 0.348 0.141 -0.034

Support to Clinical Staff

[[1]] [[1]]
Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 1-Year Forecast Proportion Change 2-Year Forecast Proportion Change
Forecast 435215 435648 437256 438948 439403 440600 440616 442339 442858 443585 444270 446034 447057 448080 449103 450126 451149 452172 453195 454218 455241 456264 457287 458310 459333 2.72% 5.54%
[[1]]
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
89.487 2080.354 1280.771 0.025 0.337 0.122 0.309

Summary

  • Finalised SARIMA models above vary by category. The Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm is implemented to find the model with the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) which is iterated until convergence.

  • Some SARIMA models fare better than others. The main distinction where the models perform poorly is taking into account discontinuous jumps (e.g. 2013 Senior Managers, 2019 Ambulance Staff). Future analysis conducted would be to build a bespoke model to better understand this issue.

  • Where seasonality is present (Midwives, Core Training), the model is ‘generally’ more sure of its forecast.

  • Total headcount is projected to increase by 1.5% to June 2023 and 3.4% to June 2024. This is unlikely to occur due to the recruitment freeze and uncertainty regarding job cuts which is set to occur in 2023. Future analysis conducted would build this into future models (e.g. integrated proportional decreases using known information (30-40% decrease: https://www.nhsprocurement.org.uk/news/6000-plus-jobs-be-cut-new-nhs-england), building model scenarios) to better understand this issue.

  • Midwives trend continues to decrease with a forcasted 1.0% decrease relative to June 2023 and a 2.4% decrease relative to June 2024.

  • There are many indicators/ideas of what constitutes ‘good model performance’. One such metric is called the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). This is the aggregated mean of the sum of non-negative differences between actual and forecasted values. The smaller this is the better the fit (relative to the scale).

  • Another metric is called the Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE). Generally speaking, a MAPE of less than 0.25 indicates a good fit. Total headcount, Midwives, Consultants, and Nurses & Health Visitors fit this criteria. HCAS Doctors falls just outside (0.26).

\[\\[0.5in]\]